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CBS 最新民意调查,Peter Brown 以24% 大幅领先Gene Locke 14%

罗玲专栏          于 October 27, 2009 at 09:41:03:

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CBS 电视台最新民意调查,Peter Brown 以24% 大幅领先对手Annise Parker 的16%, 以及 Gene Lock的14%。

Peter Brown 获得的非裔美国人的支持率与本身为非裔美国人的Gene Locke 几乎持平。也即是说,休斯敦的非裔一半支持Peter Brown, 一半支持同族裔的Gene Locke.

Brown commands big lead in 11 News mayoral poll

12:20 AM CDT on Tuesday, October 27, 2009

By Lee McGuire / 11 News

HOUSTON -- Houston City Council member Peter Brown holds an eight point lead over his nearest opponent in a new 11 News / KUHF Houston Public Radio poll.
Houston's mayoral race
Brown leads in polls
October 26, 2009
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According to the poll, 24 percent of likely voters in the Houston mayoral race plan to vote for Brown. This is up sharply from the five percent of likely voters who said they would vote for him in an 11 News poll conducted in August, before Brown had launched a massive advertising campaign and spent more than $2.4 million of his own money to promote his candidacy.

Brown’s nearest challenger is comptroller Annise Parker, who holds the support of 16 percent of likely voters in the current poll. Former city attorney Gene Locke has 14 percent support, and Harris County Department of Education trustee Roy Morales has 5 percent support. Forty-one percent of likely voters told pollsters that they have not yet settled on a candidate. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percent, which means it is difficult to determine whether Locke or Parker has more support than the other.

“It seems very likely that if this trend holds up, that Peter Brown will be in the runoff,” said 11 News political expert Bob Stein, who conducted the poll with the Center for Civic Engagement at Rice University. “The most likely opponent will be Annise Parker, but that is still very much up in the air,” he said.

Stein said he did not expect to see such a high percentage of likely voters who said they still do not know who to vote for. When Bill White was first elected on 2003, Stein said, a similar poll conducted at the same time showed an “undecided” figure of 12 percent.

“I think Brown has pulled ahead because he is the only candidate who has been able to effectively communicate with voters over the last four to six weeks,” he said. “The story of this campaign is, people vastly underestimated Peter Brown as a candidate and what his access to his family’s wealth could do in terms of fostering his candidacy.”

Stein said he had expected Locke to pull more support from African American voters than the poll indicates. “It’s hard to believe that an African American candidate would not win 80 or 90 percent of the vote,” he said. However, the poll shows Locke has the support of just 30 percent of likely voters who are African American, while Brown has 22 percent. Parker has the support of five percent of the African American community, and Morales has one percent.



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