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2010大休斯顿地区经济展望:GE主席杰夫·伊梅尔特主讲(视频)

世界名人网专题          录入于 December 16, 2009 at 17:02:35:



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杰夫·伊梅尔特,出生于1956年2月19日,辛辛那提,俄亥俄州,GE公司现任董事会主席与首席执行官。他于1982年加入GE,至今已经服务GE20多年。

* 1978年,达特茅斯学院毕业,获得应用数学学士学位,曾是该校Phi Delta Alpha兄弟联谊会主席。
* 1982年,获得哈佛商学院工商管理硕士(MBA)学位。
* 1982年,加入GE总部市场部。
* 1983年,GE塑料集团,曾负责管理过销售、市场及全球产品管理等部门。
* 1989年,GE家电集团副总裁,负责消费者服务。
* 1991年,GE产品管理副总裁,负责全球市场及产品管理。
* 1992年-1993年,GE塑料集团副总裁和塑料集团美洲商业部总经理。
* 1996年-1999年,GE医疗系统集团总裁兼首席执行官。
* 2000年,GE总裁兼董事会候任主席。
* 2001年,GE董事会主席和首席执行官。
* 伊梅尔特由于杰克·韦尔奇的退休,于2001年9月7日接任GE的董事会主席和首席执行官职位[3],不过4天后,就发生了恐怖组织袭击美国事件,史称911事件。在这次恐怖事件中,有两名公司员工身亡,公司的保险业务损失了将近600百万,航空技术部门的股价下跌了80%。上任伊始,伊梅尔特面就对这种状况,开局并不乐观。
* 2007年总的年收入是14,209,267美元,其中薪资3,00,000美元,现金分红5,800,000美元,限制性股票4,713,000美元,股票期权0美元,其他收入396,267美元。
* 2008年总的年收入是5,717,469美元,其中薪资3,300,000美元,现金分红0美元,限制性股票2,044,650美元,股票期权0美元,其他收入372,819美元。
* 2008年,伊梅尔特入选了《时代周刊》年度最有影响力100人。
* 2009年2月,伊梅尔特被任命为经济复苏顾问委员会的成员,负责向美国总统奥巴马及其领导班子提供走出经济低迷的建议与意见。

* 伊梅尔特是达特茅斯学院董事会的兼任董事。
* 伊梅尔特是两个非盈利组织的董事会成员,其中之一是旨在救助纽约穷人的罗宾汉基金会(Robin Hood Foundation)。
* 伊梅尔特目前是美国总统奥巴马经济复苏顾问委员会的成员之一[15]。

2010: On the Road Back
The short version of the Greater Houston Partner-ship’s forecast is that metropolitan Houston, which lost nearly 93,000 jobs this year, will end ’10 with a net gain of 1,900. And Houston enters ’11 mov-ing in the right direction. Job losses in ’10 cease around mid-year, and Q3/10 brings the first blush of job growth in Houston’s nascent recovery.

For several years, three factors have worked to channel the growth of Houston’s economy: energy prices, the health of the national economy, and the value of the dollar. Those drivers remain opera-tive—but now there’s an added factor in play.

August ’07 brought the first blush of what became a crippling worldwide credit crunch. No industry or region has been immune to its effects. Houston, however, was sheltered for another year by high and rising energy prices that shielded it from the worst effects of sharply reduced credit.

As recession became entrenched in ’08, worldwide energy demand fell, and energy prices tumbled. In addition, real GDP growth posted the first of four consecutive quarters of contraction in Q3/08, and international trade shrank as credit and demand dried up. Without the shield of high commodity prices, job growth here slowed rapidly, turning negative early in ’09.

’09 has seen some easing in credit availability, but tight credit remains a constraint on much business activity—especially in commercial real estate, which faces massive refinancing demands in ’10.

Employment, of course, is a lagging economic in-dicator. When economic conditions start to im-prove and demand for goods and services begins to revive, employers first increase hours worked. The next step is to add temporary workers. Only when demand is seen as stable, and downside risks as limited, are employers likely to make new hires.

In Houston, a return to sustained job growth de-pends heavily not only on renewed demand for energy and for chemicals and plastics products, but also on revived international trade. This means that economic recovery elsewhere is a prerequisite for substantial job growth in Houston.

Late ’09 saw scattered positive economic signs for the national economy, leading to the widespread expectation that the U.S. will see growth in payroll employment in either Q1 or Q2. Houston, the Part-nership believes, is likely to follow suit in Q3.

2009

What happened in Houston in ’09 is largely con-tained in three stories—upstream energy, construc-tion, and international trade.

Upstream energy: The supersector name is “min-ing and logging,” but nearly all of it in Houston is oil and gas. It’s of particular importance to the re-gion’s economy because average annual pay is well above $100,000, so its employment level has a large impact on industries that depend heavily on discretionary spending.

Data are available in Houston for two components of this supersector. Oil and gas extraction, which includes many of the major firms engaged in multi-year programs abroad, has continued to add jobs, and should end ’09 with an over-the-year gain of 2,100 or so. (The latest data at this writing are for October.) Support activities for mining, more sus-ceptible to short-term shifts in demand, probably has shed 5,100 jobs this year.

We expect construction to have lost 23,300 jobs—one in nine—this year, accounting for a quarter of the region’s net job loss. Steep cuts in construction activity have affected other industries, and are al-most certainly involved in the loss of some 6,400 jobs in fabricated metal products manufacturing and 6,600 in architectural and engineering services.

International trade: Houston has long occupied a prominent position in international business. It’s ironic that international trade appears to have made Houston more vulnerable than the other large Texas metros to the steep worldwide drop in trade induced by limited credit availability. From De-cember ’08 to December ’09, wholesale trade em-ployment in Houston fell about 11.7 percent, cost-ing 16,400 jobs. The related category of transporta-tion that includes warehousing, water transport and rail transport is likely to have shed another 10,000 jobs, down 17.9 percent.

Those three stories involve industries that represent more than two-thirds of Houston’s net job loss this year. What happens to them will dominate Hous-ton’s employment picture in ’10.

2010

On balance, it looks as if the Houston metro area should eke out a small net gain—1,900—next year. That’s end product of gains and losses for individual industries that respond in different ways to eco-nomic developments. As we turn to a detailed look at next year, we emphasize that the numbers in a forecast aren’t as important as the reasons underly-ing the forecast. Being aware of what drives a fore-cast allows one to adjust expectations when unan-ticipated changes occur.

Upstream energy: The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the price of West Texas Intermediate crude to be little changed in ’10, aver-aging about $79 and edging above $81 in Q4. On the other hand, EIA sees total domestic natural gas consumption declining 0.4 percent. In EIA’s fore-cast, natural gas prices are pushed higher by declin-

ing production, but remain below $5 through Q3, rising to $5.20 in Q4. These inauspicious scenarios for growth in exploration and production activity augur continuation of this year’s corporate and field layoffs into ’10. Recently announced job cuts and budget reductions suggest that E&P employ-ment in Houston will decline nearly 2 percent in ’10. Oilfield services firms could easily drop an-other 1,400 jobs in ’10. Overall, mining and log-ging employment should decline by 2,300 jobs, or 2.6 percent.

Construction: Aside from potential federal stimu-lus spending and tax incentives, there’s little to spark construction in Houston next year. Except in special cases, strict lending standards pose a daunt-ing challenge to financing most projects.

· Single-family residential construction—perhaps buoyed by federal tax credits, but still constrained by strict lending standards—is unlikely next year to see much more than a repetition of this year’s 15,000 or so starts.
· With a surfeit of apartments, multi-family con-struction should remain at a low level.
· Declining employment has all but eliminated demand for new general purpose office space.
· Groundbreaking on new industrial projects, CBRE reports, has fallen “to a near standstill amidst concerns of overbuilding as well as a lack of money to support proposed projects.”
· This year’s store closings and decline in con-sumer spending have dampened retail pros-pects, and the credit crunch makes prospects for retail construction next year dim.
· Even public works construction is suffering. Some school districts have deferred issuing bonds for new schools because declining prop-erty values threaten tax revenues. Projects for which funding is either already assured or not burdened by credit constraints—METRO’s light rail, for instance—will go forward.

While ’09 probably saw the brunt of the hits to construction employment in the Houston region, a further modest decline in ’10 seems unavoidable. The Partnership expects this loss to run to 5,500 jobs, or 3.1 percent.

International trade: Unfortunately, industry defini-tions used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics data don’t permit us to isolate international trade. We gain some insight by looking at wholesale trade and the category in transportation and warehousing that has warehousing, waterborne transportation, and rail transportation as primary components.

As developed economies worldwide fell into reces-sion, international trade shipments declined pre-cipitously. Excluding mineral fuels, the 12-month total volume of Port of Houston imports and ex-ports peaked in August ’08 and then fell 19.0 per-cent over the next 12 months.

With economic growth now accelerating in some Asian economies and returning in some developed economies, trade volumes should improve—and Houston certainly hasn’t lost its capacity to handle international trade. Q3/09 brought solid gains in imports and exports at the national level, brighten-ing the prospects for further growth in ’10. These prospects underpin the Partnership’s expectation that wholesale trade in Houston next year will re-gain 5,200 of the 16,400 jobs it lost this year, and that the transportation component that includes warehousing, waterborne transportation, and rail transportation will add back 2,900 of the 10,000 jobs it lost this year.

Manufacturing declines for a second consecutive year in this forecast—but by only 2.1 percent, ver-sus 7.5 percent in ’09. Three-fourths of the 4,800 manufacturing jobs expected to be lost in ’10 are in fabricated metal products, which is adversely af-fected by dwindling construction activity.

Retail trade, which will have lost a bit more than 10,000 jobs this year, sheds just 400 jobs in ’10. This forecast anticipates rising consumer confi-dence as job losses abate in the first half of ’10 and gains appear in the second half. An expanding con-sumer market adds support for retail trade em-ployment: population growth in this decade has consistently exceeded 100,000 persons per year in the 10-county metropolitan area.

Professional, scientific and technical services sees little net change in ’10. This sector is buoyed by a second year of 4.0 percent growth in computer systems design and a 2.1 percent gain in legal ser-vices. Architectural and engineering services, how-ever, are expected to decline 1.9 percent after a 9.8 percent drop this year, hurt by both the continued decline in construction activity and the less-than-robust outlook for upstream energy.

Administrative and support services is expected to reverse this year’s loss of 5,200 jobs with a net gain of 5,400. A solid advance in employment ser-vices—a harbinger of growth in permanent jobs—more than offsets mild declines in other fields.

Health care and social assistance isn’t immune to recessionary pressures, but its dominant health care component also is driven by the growth and aging of the population it serves. This forecast sees job growth slowing from 2.0 percent this year to 1.6 percent next year.

Accommodation and food services ekes out a net gain of 0.5 percent in ’10. The year is a difficult one for the lodging industry, but an improving re-gional economy moving toward ’11 should bolster restaurants and other food services.

Government should add 4,100 jobs, as 4,800 jobs added in public education more than offset a mod-est decline in other governmental functions. The gains in public education are predicated not only on population growth, but also on the rise in de-mand for additional education and/or vocational training that typically occurs in a recession. The forecast for government also recognizes that many political jurisdictions are seeing shrinking revenues from property and sales taxes.

One of many uncertainties is the extent of addi-tional federal actions to blunt the inroads made by this recession. The anticipated expansion in public education assumes that funding will be available—something that may depend on federal assistance. Elsewhere, however, we do not assume any addi-tional federal intervention.

The outlook for ’10 isn’t nearly so dire as was the forecast for ’09. We see job losses here continuing well into ’10, but at moderating rates. By the time we reach the final quarter of next year, employ-ment—a lagging indicator—should be on the upswing. Houston’s economy is fundamentally sound, and it’s well-positioned to return to vigor-ous growth as recession turns to growth across the globe.

Greater Houston Partnership
December 14, 2009



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